Please Read the First Three Parts in This Series Before Reading This
Start by Recalling the Findings Set Out at the End of Part Three
Far More Likely Causes of Islamic Downfall and Backwardness For Three Centuries Now:
All over the world, vast numbers of Muslims readily shift the blame onto outsiders for Islam's massive failures and steady descent into humiliating economic and military weakness for three centuries now --- with the vicious hobgoblin Jewish World Conspiracy the crack-whip commanders in charge of their monstrous anti-Muslim proxy-miscreants (the USA and the bigger EU countries). Note though. A few Muslims, a small and relatively quiet group of scholars and journalists, disagree. They've explained Islam's endless decline and backwardness for centuries now as due to more plausible causes. Namely: massive corruption, incompetent dictatorial regimes, secret-police states, crony-patron groups at the top that suppress or kill off rival crony-patron groups, and promotion of cronies to higher position without qualifications (just nice obedience to the head-honchos).
Not to overlook a poor work ethos, incompetent business managers, and retard-economies, all of which plague their societies. Plus, it needs to be stressed, backward science and backward technologies and horrid educational systems. And not least, just the contrary, the marked suppression of half of all Muslims world-wide who don't have penises.
Nor Is That All.
The religion of peace doesn't look at all peaceful these days --- very much the blood-splattered opposite. Well, when was it ever at peace with either non-Muslim countries or between different Muslim Empires and Kingdoms?
Nothing surprising, then, that everywhere in Islam these days, there are endless internecine hatreds and bloodthirsty conflicts galore at work in every Muslim country. These bitter antagonisms pit diverse Muslim ethnic and tribal groups against one another, all of them, it seems, full of rancor and enmity toward others . . . just as the same antagonisms --- no less crazed and cutthroat ---still cause massive wars a good 1500 years old between Sunnis and Shia, the two major branches of Islam. Not to forget, within these two branches, the use of extensive terrorism by breakaway jihadi and other hate-filled minority Muslim groups only too eager to kill off alleged heretics and apostates or one another in grudge-laden struggles for power.
Then, too, a new target these days of the more vicious terrorists enters the domestic Islamic House-of-Horrors. In particular, there are all the alleged Muslim softy sellouts, not least the Kings and Presidents-for-Life and their followers in charge of their countries, who have adopted certain western values and behavior recently, with their numbers soaring in recent decades thanks to American and Europe movies, TV, and the Internet. No surprise again, is it? that 6 of the top 8 countries worldwide that watch the most pornography online are Muslim. Click here for the list.
Oh, and don't forget on this score of westernized imports a steady inflow of Western (or Russian) arms that require US and European instructors to train the locals in their usage.
For ISIS, al-Qaeda, and other death-cult jihadis, these halfway-modernized Muslim-traitors will either have to repent and kneel without complaint to dogmatic Dark-Age Sharia laws or face you-know-what . . . a bomb here, a few swords slashes there: What the heck, can't rebuild Islam to its glory past without lots of gore, right? And in case there aren't enough apostates or softy-sellouts around to massacre, there are always Christians and pagans to take their place, what say guys?
Who knows in extremist jihadi circles what to do here, these poor confused male killers? Well, maybe Boko Haram has pioneered the way to deal with Christians, males or females, anywhere. Just kidnap some school girls and sell them off to Saudis and others with enough lute. Or, if the children are Muslim, train them in Boko's ranks to "slaughter people like animals." Click here for the evidence.
Recently, in Israel, there has been a noticeable increase of Christian Arabs fleeing from Syria and Iraq and other Muslim countries, with the Israelis welcoming them warmly. More and more Christian Arabs already settled in Israel have been joining the IDF (Israeli army) . . . including a female Christian put in charge of a front-line unit composed of Jews and Christians. Click here for the info.
And The Future of the Arch-Bogeymen Who Rule the World?
Yeah, what about the diabolical Jews who have masterminded the rotted decline and backwardness of Islam worldwide? Well, to believe the Arab street and new jihadis, it's curtains for you vile-guys once the purified Caliphate takes control of Islam and uses a few low-level nuclear bombs and a lot of chemical and biological weaponry to take care of them, those devilish fiends, what say? First, to put the point more plainy, its graveyard-fodder first for you uppity Israelis . . . two or three bombs and some saran-gas will do the trick, what say! And then the few Jews left in Europe will get their comeuppance, their population already down to 1/7th of 1.0% amid Europe's 750 million population . . . Adolf unable to complete the job himself 70 years ago that regenerated Islam will finish once and for all.
Yep, quite a few more synagogues to burn, more Jewish schools too, and lots and lots of Jews in French and other public schools to be beaten up by older and bigger street thugs.
The Halimi Case in France
Not to forget some special drawn-out torture of the few men and women left in Europe, pioneered gruesomely in France in January 2006, where Ilan Halimi was agonizingly tormented without mercy for a good 3 weeks by a group of scummy young Muslims known as the "Gang of Barbarians".
There were 28 girls and boys who relished the burnings and screams that occurred in a basement of a big building. The atrocious screams could easily be heard in the upper floors. No one interfered. No one called the police. Finally, after 24 days of torture, Halimi's body was found next to a train track.
"The kidnappers originally thought Halimi was wealthy because he came from a Moroccan Jewish family, though he came from the same poor and working-class neighborhood on the outskirts of Paris as the kidnappers did. According to then Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, members of the gang confessed that they believed all Jews to be rich and it motivated them to target several Jews." Source: click here.
Well, is this a surprise?
Not according this time to Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, who hosted the 10th Islamic SUmmit Conference in his country in October 2003. Jews, he said pointedly, "rule the world", and so obviously to the kidnappers and torturers in France of Halimi, Halami's parents could easily pay the ransome they demanded, no? After all, to the 57 leaders of the Muslim countries who were having a joyful time in Malaysia, Mahathir was only a truth-speaker whose prattling fantasies so ignited the 57 big-cheese rulers that, as soon as he finished, they all jumped to their feet and clapped loudly with cheers --- Bravo! Bravo! --- for a good couple of minutes. Actually, the Prime Minister was only voicing in high-toned delusions what Muslims at all levels of the social order had been saying for decades, except that this time the world press was present.
Oh, something else. As you'll see at the end of this post, France happens to be by far the most anti-Semitic country in West Europe --- almost five times higher, believe it or not, compared to Britain . . . the other country in Europe with a fairly large percentage of Muslims. Small wonder that the prosector in the Halami case --- President Jacques Chirac's personal lawyer --- tried for weeks in the trial to insist that the Gang of Barbarians weren't really anti-Semites . . . this, mind you, when the leader of the Gang had been found with all sorts of Nazi and Neo-Nazi collections in his apartment.
How Rife Are These Hatreds Within and Across the Borders of Muslim Countries.
Well, If you can find any one Muslim country on the globe free of at least some of these rancorous enmities --- all home-grown, all vicious, and all unable to settle their internal group-conflicts peacefully --- please let buggy know. Witness Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s, Algeria in the 1980s and 1990s, and the brutal Iraqi-Iranian war in 1980s. And, these days, witness rampant domestic and cross-border terrorism and warfare in Iraq, Syria, Turkey, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia (armed suppression of Shia minorities), Sudan, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Yemen, Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and . . . well, the list is long and could run on for almost a full page.
For an excellent summary of the UN Arab Human Development Report 2002 --- put out by a team of 30 Arab scholars --- click here.
It sets out all the various real problems and numerous failures, over and over, to cause backwardness and stagnation in almost all areas of the Arab world. As The Economist online magazine observes, the vast majority of Arabs explain their failures as due to the Israelis --- and that includes a large number of so-called educated Arabs.Are there many such thoughtful open-minded scholars and others in Islam these days? Alas, not many. And those who are have generally been educated at university level in Europe or North America. (Some probably, too, in the American University in Beirut and in Cairo --- both of which have academic standards that have been examined and accredited by US university-officials every few years.)
Then too, with few exceptions, most of the them live in Europe, North America, Australia, or in a tiny handful of the less blood-spilling Muslim countries like the small Gulf-States, Beirut if they write in English, and among the West Bank Palestinians (some of whom have been educated in Israeli universities). Otherwise, free-speaking scholars and journalists in Muslim countries risk being heavily censored by the dictatorial governments or threatened and sometimes killed off by enraged Islamists.
A Huge Dilemma for Arab Dictators, whether Kings or Presidents:
An Emerging On-the-Sly Alliance with Israel
To contain Iranian influence in the Middle East ---which will grow in time with nuclear warheads and missile systems and advanced non-nuclear weaponry --- the dictatorial leaders of the Sunni governments near Iran need Israeli support. This they know. They don't have the military technologies or the disciplined training to do it on their own. In the upshot, a sotto-voce quasi- alliance has been fashioned between Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and even (however tenuous) with Saudi Arabia and the small Gulf States.
Enter the dilemma. After nearly 100 years of inciting their populations to hate the Jews in their midst (and after 1948, Israel), the dictators have to tread carefully not to be seen by the so-called Arab-street as endorsing the right of Israel to exist . . . never mind openly admitting their desperate need for Israeli help.
The same may be true for Turkey in the future as well. Until recently, Israel had an unspoken alliance with Turkey and its military. That changed under the demagogic rule of Premier (now President) Erdogan, the head of a radical Islamic group with large support among the Turkish masses in the countryside, small towns and cities, and the larger cities in the middle and east of the country. Increasingly, Erdogan and his Islamist followers are in conflict with the secular European-oriented Turkish businesses, banks, newspapers, and most of the military officer corps not yet purged by the government. Already, too, new violence has broken out between the Turkish government and the Kurds in the East and South of the country. A civil war in Turkey cannot be ruled out. This time, if and when it does, it might not be confined to Turks and Kurds, especially if the Kurds break away from Syria along with Kurds in Iraq.)
The role of the US in the Middle East now and for years ahead?
Needless to stress, the Sunni dictatorial and other authoritarian governments also desperately want American military and other support for their struggles with radical Islamists of the Sunni sort and, increasingly, with Iran. Under President Obama, they still get some support but not nearly as much as they want. Obama, maybe rightly, is working with Iranian elite military officers in Iraq against ISIS and maybe even in Syria. (He also might think that he can win the Iranian Mullahs and elite military away from extremism, including support for terrorism abroad. If so, he will most likely be suckered. More about this later on here.)
Iraq and the War with ISIS
The Iraqi Military's Troubles
In the newest war with fanatical jihadists --- as if there weren't already enough bomb-throwing hatreds as work in the country --- so far, to put it mildly, the Iraqi military forces haven’t been effective in fighting ISIS. Only the Kurds have done so. And sooner or later, the Kurds will very likely join up with Kurds in Turkey, Syria, and yes even Iran to create their own independent country. Let the Arabs left in Iraq fight it out among themselves. What's the trouble with the Iraqi army's performance?
Note that it isn’t the training of the better Iraqi units (Sunni or Shia in majority) that US trainers directed for several years. A handful of companies were even considered by the US military as crack units before our military departed from Iraq. The problem with the Iraqi battle-oriented effectiveness lies elsewhere. It’s in the lack among them --- especially the Sunnis, by far the most exposed in Iraq to ISIS blood-curling onslaughts --- of a war-fighting spirit. Why? Both in the ranks and officer corps, they aren’t willing to risk their lives in sustained battle for a cause they don’t fully believe in. Many Iraqi Sunnis may even want ISIS to win, so much do they hate the Shia-run government in Baghdad.
As for the Shia soldiers --- including waves of volunteers --- they are no doubt willing to fight for their cause, but they still need a lot of training before they’re ready for sustained gory battles with ISIS. Then, too, when they do move northward into Sunni territory, they have already killed Sunni citizens just for the heck of it.
So Who Fights Well for Their Cause?
Well, we mentioned the Kurds --- bent on maintaining their quasi-independence and fairly effective local government, a way-station as just mentioned to a Kurdish state of their own. Then, of course, there the mass-murdering ISIS terrorists who believe strongly in their jihadi mission to create a new Caliphate and force Muslims world-wide ---or at least in the Arab world --- to submit to true-Medieval Sharia law: Meaning forced subordination of women, no education for them either, severe punishment (rocks doing the job)for pre-marital sex, death to heretics and apostates from Islam, death to those who try to cling to an any Western values, and of course endless jihad against Jews and other non-Muslims world-wide.
Even So, There May Be Better Iraqi Battlefield Performance in the Making
Yes, some chance anyway. The hitherto lack of a hard combative motivation to fight effectively may be improving now, thanks to the vicious ISIS reputation, especially among Shias and perhaps in a few well-trained Sunni units. There’s some solid evidence here. Journalists, foreign and Iraqi, have reported in the last two months that some Iraqi units have fought with vigor and determination in some battles with ISIS forces . . . no doubt bolstered by American and French air support, recently joined by some limited British air-power.
Something else too.
These air-attacks aren’t limited to battlefield areas. They have also been hitting crucial ISIS supply routes from Syria and Turkey, with clear results that have markedly disrupted not just shipments of arms, ammunition, and food, but also gasoline and money.Ultimately, the outcome of this bloody struggle with ISIS in Iraq will depend largely on not just more training of Shia and Sunni forces or air attacks, but on whether the corrupt government in Baghdad is seen as worth fighting hard and tenaciously for. Even then, full Kurdish defection from any meaningful relation with Baghdad cannot be ruled out --- especially if Kurdish areas in Syria and Turkey have gained enough independence to form, finally, a Kurdish state. (Something Iran can then worry about, no?)
Islam’s Likely Future in the Middle East
Endless War, Domestic and Cross-Border, Leading to the Crack-Up of Arab Countries
Don’t forget that ISIS, now working with other jihadi fanatical groups like al-Qaeda a variety of Salafi terrorist groups active in Gaza (likely a threat to Hamas control) and elsewhere, has threatened to move some of its followers into Saudi Arabia and the tiny Gulf States, and may already be preparing terrorist attacks. Will they find support as well among the Palestinian majority in Jordan? Or hook up with the already fanatical groups in Gaza not fully controlled by Hamas? Or show a readiness to fight the despised Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon? Or even within the Abbas-governed West Bank?
About all anyone can predict is a massive increase of terrorism, civil war, and growing antagonisms among the Arab and non-Arab Islamic populations in the Middle East, along with parts of Turkey and even in Iran . . . not to forget North Africa. For ISIS and its followers, Muslims who don’t support their radical Islamist views are heretics and deserve to be slaughtered if they don’t change their monstrous and intolerable drift away from true Islam as the radical Jihadis understand it. Then, too, there will almost certainly be more slaughter even between moderate Sunnis and Shiites, whose hatreds extend back more than 14 centuries . . . with even Iran not free from terrorist attacks (there are some already) that will intensify already existing strains between non-Shiites and Shiites and, even more threatening to Iran’s clerical leaders, between the 50% of the population that isn’t Farsi-speaking and the Persian descendents who are.
All this, it seems, could lead to a breakup of the outer-edge non-Persian areas on the Northern and Western borders of Iran, including of course the Kurds.
Added On Just a Minute Ago To An Email:
Israeli Prime Minister Speech
Thank you for the Netanyahu speech about Iranian-American negotiations. I first saw it in the Jerusalem Post two or three days ago (or maybe the Israel Post, a fairly new newspaper that's more or less half-way located between the JP and Haaretz). And on the whole Netanyahu strikes me as accurate. It's just not clear right now what kind of deal Obama and the Iranians are trying to strike. There are, it's true, some overlapping interests in stopping ISIS, but beyond that who knows what else is being hatched behind the scenes? We need to wait and see.
Obama Hasn't Total Control of Any Agreement
In the meantime, keep in mind that the Senate can pass a law that requires any deal with Iran to be approved by it . . . just as the Senate passed legislation in late January 2015 insisting on new sanctions against Iran if any deal doesn't satisfy its members about clear limits on the nuclear program. Keep in mind too that Obama can always strengthen his bargaining points with Iran by pointing to the Senate's legislation.
On the Iranian side, there is almost certainly discord between the Revolutionary Guard (getting rich moreover), the Mullahs and Ayatollahs (though hard to know what Khamenei himself thinks), and the new President and his supporters. Something else. Iran's rapid increase in population since the revolution in 1979 means that more and more of it have been born since then, and they tend, it seems, to want more freedom from the rigid application of Sharia laws and a secret-police to enforce them.
How many, on the other hand, might opt for Shia jihadi is just not clear. In the meantime, ISIS in Iraq is bypassing the Kurds --- who fight too well against its jihadi members --- and moving directly into Shia areas. Iran will have its problems seeking to strengthen the resistance. (ISIS has now moved into North Africa as well. Lots of jihadis loose these days.)
Netanyahu is also likely to be proven right about the future of Jews in Europe . . . 1.2 million among a total population of 750 million from Ireland and Britain into Russia. That's about 1/7th of 1.0% . . . half of which Jews live in France, and another third or so in Britain. The continued growth of the Muslims all over Europe means that they will probably reach 20--25% of the total population in the next two decades. More and more of the younger men who are between 17 and 33 years of age will likely be attracted to jihadism unless it's contained effectively abroad and at home in Europe.
Just today (2/19/2015) after the attacks on Jews in France and then Denmark, the Norwegian government has mobilized police protection around a possible bombing attack on a synagogue.
Protection?Jihadi attacks, whether bombings, suicide bombings, guns, mobs or what have you against European Jews, are almost certain to increase . . . this, no matter what measures of protection European governments might engage in. (In Hungary and some other countries, probably not much protection at all.)In the end, how many Jews will be left in Europe in another decade or two can't be pinned down now. About all one can speculate saying accurately is that there's not much of a future for them in the changed Europe --- with anti-Semitism on the rise in the native-European populations, never mind among the growing Muslim percentage of the total number in each country..
What the Prime Minister said about the creation of Israeli as a refuge for Jews worldwide also seems on target. Only in the US and a small handful of other countries is there little anti-Semitism of a serious sort (possibly Canada too, but not in Quebec.) It's at a record low.
The Evidence: The 2014 ADL Global Survey of 100 Countries and Percentage of Anti-Semitism In Each
Specifically, according to the latest global survey of anti-Semitism worldwide, it's 9% of the US population that is clearly anti-Semitic and 14% in Canada and in Australia. In West Europe 24% and in Eastern Europe 34%. In Asia generally 22%, in the Middle East and North Africa it's 74% (no surprise, is it?), in Sub-Saharan Africa 23%, and in North-and-South America 19%. Source: click here. Also, click on the bottom of the map on the ADL site to the country list to get specific country-surveys.
In Europe, to return to it, 37% of the French turned out to be anti-Semitic, 8% in Britain, 27% in Germany, 45% in Poland, 29% in Spain, 20% in Italy, 69% in Greece, 15% in Norway, 4% in Sweden, 5% in Netherlands, 27% in Belgium, 15% in Finland, and only 13% in Czech Repubic . . . a low for new East European members of the EU, while the percentage averages three to four times higher in the other new East European countries.
And Russia? A fairly surprising 30% only (buggy wouldn't have been surprised if it were 50%).